Why Jobs Data Seems Conflicting

Posted on | June 3, 2009 | No Comments

I thought it was important to take a few seconds and acknowledge and explain apparent discrepancies in the jobs data reported on Careersthatdontsuck.com.  Each month, we report jobs data from a variety of sources, and sometimes, that data appears to be all over the board.  How can there be good news in one post and bad news in another during the same week or same month?

Here’s how.  First, many of our data sources focus on different aspects of the labor market.  For instance, my prior post about the ADP Employment Report was all doom and gloom, but the ADP report covers only privately-owned companies that report their payroll data to ADP.  ADP reports changes in payroll data and does not report the number of job vacancies at any given time.

In the post following the ADP post, I reported information from The Conference Board.  The Conference Board does not distinguish between private and public companies, and does not report job losses.  Instead, the Conference Board reports the number of job vacancies posted online each month and uses unemployment data from the Department of Labor.

That brings me to the Department of Labor (DOL) reports.  Reports from the DOL or the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) focus on unemployment data from the states, the number of persons applying for or collecting unemployment benefits, Census data and population surveys.  The DOL and BLS reports don’t cover new job vacancies, and don’t distinguish between job losses from private and public companies.

Beyond the focus of each of the reports, there is a second important difference–the time period.  While all of the reports state that they are monthly, the beginning and ends of their data collection periods and the date on which the information on which their reports are based is updated, can make a huge difference.

What’s it all mean?  Jobs data is complicated, and different organizations focus on different data.  Depending on what you need to know, and what matters to your business or your job search, one organization’s report may be more or less relevant.  And, even when you think the data are conflicting, they may not be.  It is possible for the unemployment rate to rise while the number of job openings posted online increases.

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